COVID Infections in the United States

Last updated 2021-03-15 using data through 2021-03-07.

Below we present estimates of the true number of COVID-19 infections in each US state on each day since March 2020. Point estimates on each day are plotted as bold lines within 95% confidence bands. The model used to generate these estimates is described here.

We use state-level data on deaths, cases, and tests reported by the COVID Tracking Project. Our model also incorporates the results of statewide representative random sample COVID testing conducted in Indiana and Ohio.

New COVID infections on each day

Reported deaths (appropriately scaled) are plotted in grey for comparison. Note that deaths can lag infections by a few weeks.

Current infection rate

Proportion of the population infected

Reproductive number r(t)

Cumulative infection undercount (infections/cases)

Most recent estimates

Below are the latest infection estimates. We report point estimates with 95% credible intervals in parentheses.

Created by
Nicholas J. Irons
Adrian E. Raftery.